Deliverable 13. Methodology to assess the impacts of climate and global change in the LIFE MEDACC case study basins: Generation of scenarios, vulnerability maps and modelling

This deliverable explains the methodologies followed in the project LIFE MEDACC to assess the impacts of climate and global change in the three case-study basins: Muga, Ter and Segre.

The first section makes a general introduction to the deliverable objectives. The second section delves into the climate scenarios by giving a general background, explaining existent scenario data and going into detail about the downscaling methodology of the RCP4.5 scenario proposed for this project. The third section carries out specific socioeconomic scenarios drawn ad hoc for project purposes. We have developed three land cover scenarios for the headwaters (afforestation, fire and forest management scenarios) and two water use scenarios for the medium and low basin courses (rational use of water resources and increased demand scenarios). The fourth section presents the hydrological modelling needed to assess the impacts of the scenarios in the water cycle. We have calibrated and validated two hydrological models (RHESSys and SWAT) and, then, introduce the climate and socioeconomic scenarios into the models to evaluate future impacts. The fifth section shows the methodology of the agriculture modelling. This project assesses agriculture suitability using net irrigation needs (NIR) of major crops and uses a set of agroclimatic parameters capable of indicating the consequences of climate change for crop production and growing cycle. Finally, the sixth section goes in depth into an analysis of climate change impacts on forests. We have applied a forest growth process-based model (GOTILWA+) and an index of forest fire risk (Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index) for this analysis.

This deliverable delves into the methodologies followed by the project and the input data used in the modelling. The results, analysis of the results and conclusions of the application of these methodologies can be consulted at the Deliverable 14 Impacts of climate and global change on the ecological, hydrological and agriculture systems in the LIFE MEDACC case study basins.

Document available only in english.